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Tropical Storm CELIA Forecast Discussion Number 14
2016-07-10 04:34:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SAT JUL 09 2016 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 100233 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042016 800 PM PDT SAT JUL 09 2016 Celia has changed very little since the last advisory. A small central dense overcast persists over the low-level center, with an elongated convective band wrapping around the southern and western side of the circulation. The initial intensity remains 55 kt based on Dvorak estimates of T3.5 from TAFB and SAB. Celia appears to have escaped the coldest water of Hurricane Blas's wake and is now over sea surface temperatures warmer than 27 degrees Celsius. In addition, vertical shear is very low and is expected to remain low for the next 5 days. Therefore, more significant strengthening (compared to the past few days) should begin soon and continue during the next 2 to 3 days while the cyclone is over warm water. A gradual weakening trend should occur on day 3 and beyond. The NHC intensity forecast is close to a blend of the SHIPS and LGEM models and is very similar to the previous forecast. Celia's initial motion is westward, or 275/10 kt. A continued westward motion is expected for the next 48 hours while the cyclone is located south of the subtropical ridge. By day 3, Celia will be situated along the southwestern periphery of the ridge and should turn west-northwestward and northwestward at the end of the forecast period. The track guidance continues to be relatively stable and tightly clustered from cycle to cycle, and the new NHC track forecast is just an update of the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 14.5N 118.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 14.5N 120.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 14.6N 123.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 14.6N 125.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 12/0000Z 15.0N 127.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 13/0000Z 16.7N 130.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 14/0000Z 19.0N 134.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 15/0000Z 21.0N 138.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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