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Tropical Storm CELIA Forecast Discussion Number 15
2016-07-10 10:45:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SUN JUL 10 2016 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 100845 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042016 200 AM PDT SUN JUL 10 2016 The intensity analysis of Celia is complicated tonight. The satellite presentation shows a small CDO feature near the center and convective banding to the east and south of the center, which supports Dvorak estimates of T3.5/55 kt from TAFB and SAB. However, a pair of ASCAT-A and ASCAT-B passes between 0445Z and 0535Z showed winds of only 35-40 kt. In addition, recent microwave imagery shows that the inner core is not very organized yet, especially in the low levels. Given the ASCAT data, the initial intensity has been conservatively lowered to 50 kt for this advisory. The ASCAT data were also used to adjust the initial 34-kt wind radii. Celia is still expected to strengthen during the next couple of days and become a hurricane, as the cyclone moves over SSTs of 27-28C. Beyond 48 hours, the SSTs cool along the forecast track, which has been adjusted a bit to the north of the previous advisory. This track takes Celia over SSTs below 26C by day 3 and over SSTs around 24C at days 4 and 5, which should result in weakening. The new NHC intensity forecast is lower than the previous one, but is above all the guidance through 48 hours out of respect to continuity. Late in the period the official forecast was also adjusted lower, but is still above the intensity consensus. Microwave imagery and the above-mentioned ASCAT data indicate that Celia is located a bit north of previous estimates with an initial motion of 280/10. Celia is expected to move westward for the next 24 hours to the south of a mid-level ridge. By 48 hours the cyclone should turn west-northwestward as a weakness develops in the ridge around 130W. The ridge begins to rebuild back to the north of the cyclone at 120 h, which should cause Celia to turn back toward the west. The new NHC track forecast is north of the previous one through the forecast period, mainly due to the more northerly initial position of the system. This track is close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models and is near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 14.8N 119.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 14.9N 121.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 15.0N 124.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 11/1800Z 15.1N 126.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 12/0600Z 15.6N 128.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 13/0600Z 17.5N 131.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 14/0600Z 19.7N 135.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 15/0600Z 21.0N 139.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan
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