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Tropical Storm CELIA Forecast Discussion Number 16
2016-07-10 16:35:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SUN JUL 10 2016 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 101435 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042016 800 AM PDT SUN JUL 10 2016 The satellite presentation of Celia has improved significantly since the previous advisory, and a large, well-developed CDO feature is now evident with overshooting cold tops of -80C to -85C having developed near the center. The upper-level outflow pattern has also improved and become more symmetrical. Satellite intensity estimates range from T4.0/65 kt from TAFB and SAB to 61 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT and a 1020Z AMSU intensity of 64 kt, putting Celia right at the cusp of hurricane strength. The initial intensity is being held just below hurricane status at 60 kt based on the e-w elongation of the inner-core convection noted in the AMSU data. The initial motion estimate is 275/12 kt. There is no significant change to the previous forecast track or reasoning. Celia is forecast to move westward for the next 24 h or so to the south of a strong deep-layer subtropical ridge. By 36-48 h, Celia is expected to turn west-northwestward as a shortwave trough currently located along 130W longitude moves eastward and weakens the ridge. By day 3, the trough is forecast to weaken and lift out to the north, allowing the ridge to re-strengthen and turn Celia back to a more westward motion. The new official forecast track is essentially just an update of the previous advisory and lies close to the TCVE multi-model consensus. Based on the overall improvement in the infrared satellite pattern, it appears that Celia is finally making the long-anticipated move toward more significant intensification. The best conditions for strengthening are expected to be during the next 24 h or so when SSTs are at or above 27C and the vertical shear remains low at 5 kt or less. By 36-48 h, cooling SSTs ahead of Celia are expected to inhibit the strengthening process, resulting in a leveling off of the intensity forecast. By 72 h and beyond, ocean temperatures will be cooling down to 24C-25C, but the vertical shear is forecast to remain low. As a result, slower than normal weakening is forecast on days 3-5. The official intensity forecast is slightly higher than the intensity consensus model IVCN, and closely follows a blend of the SHIPS and LGEM statistical-dynamical models intensity forecasts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 14.8N 121.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 14.9N 123.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 15.0N 125.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 12/0000Z 15.3N 127.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 12/1200Z 15.9N 129.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 13/1200Z 17.9N 132.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 14/1200Z 20.0N 136.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 15/1200Z 21.0N 140.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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