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Tropical Storm CELIA Forecast Discussion Number 27
2016-07-13 10:57:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT WED JUL 13 2016 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 130857 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042016 200 AM PDT WED JUL 13 2016 While Celia continues to show an eye in infrared imagery, several recent microwave overpasses indicate this feature is displaced to the north-northeast of the low-level center. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 65 kt, and a recent CIMSS AMSU estimate is 74 kt. However, a partial ASCAT-B overpass showed maximum winds of 55 kt north of the center. Given these data and the level of disorganization implied by the microwave imagery, Celia is downgraded to a tropical storm with 60-kt winds. The initial motion is 300/10. A mid-level subtropical ridge is predicted by the global models to remain to the north of the cyclone for the next several days. This should result in Celia moving west-northwestward for the next 36-48 hours. After that time, the guidance becomes somewhat divergent. The GFS and UKMET models are on the south side of the guidance envelope and forecast a more westward motion, while the ECMWF is on the north side and forecasts a continued west-northwestward motion. Overall, the consensus models have shifted a little to the south after 36 hours. Based on this, the new forecast track is also shifted a little to the south and shows a just north of due west motion from 48-120 hours. Celia should encounter decreasing sea surface temperatures for the next 48-72 hours. After 72 hours, the cyclone is likely to encounter strong westerly shear even as it moves over slightly warmer water. This evolution should cause Celia to weaken further, with the system forecast to become a tropical depression by 72 hours and a remnant low by 120 hours. The new forecast intensity is an update of the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 18.3N 131.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 19.3N 132.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 14/0600Z 20.4N 134.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 14/1800Z 21.3N 136.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 15/0600Z 22.0N 139.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 16/0600Z 22.5N 144.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 17/0600Z 23.0N 149.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 120H 18/0600Z 23.5N 153.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
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