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Tropical Storm CELIA Forecast Discussion Number 28
2016-07-13 16:35:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT WED JUL 13 2016 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 131435 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042016 800 AM PDT WED JUL 13 2016 The cloud pattern is gradually deteriorating, and deep convection is confined to a small area near the center. Microwave and conventional infrared images continue to show that the low- and mid-level centers are not vertically aligned, which is another indication of weakening. In addition, subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, as well as objective numbers from CIMMS, argue for a reduction of the winds. Therefore, the initial intensity is set at 55 kt. Celia is already over cooler waters, and the wind shear is forecast to gradually increase. The presence of these conditions will result in weakening, and Celia is expected to degenerate into a tropical depression in a couple of days or sooner and into a remnant low thereafter. The NHC forecast follows the trend of the SHIPS guidance and the intensity model consensus. The cyclone appears to be moving toward the northwest or 305 degrees at 10 kt around the periphery of the subtropical ridge. Given that Celia is forecast to weaken and become a shallow system, the cyclone most likely will move toward the west in a couple of days steered by the prevailing low-level easterly flow. All track models are tightly clustered, and the NHC forecast, which is similar to the previous one, is in the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 19.1N 132.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 19.8N 134.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 20.8N 136.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 21.7N 138.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 15/1200Z 22.0N 140.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 16/1200Z 23.0N 145.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 17/1200Z 23.5N 150.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 18/1200Z 24.0N 154.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Avila
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