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Tropical Storm CELIA Forecast Discussion Number 29
2016-07-13 22:35:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT WED JUL 13 2016 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 132035 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042016 200 PM PDT WED JUL 13 2016 Deep convection associated with Celia has practically vanished, and consequently the Dvorak subjective and objective T-numbers have continued to decrease. However, the cyclone still has a vigorous circulation, and the best estimate of the initial intensity is 45 kt. The circulation of Celia is moving over waters of about 24 degree Celsius and cooling, while the wind shear is forecast to gradually increase. These conditions will result in additional weakening, and Celia is expected to degenerate into a tropical depression in about a day, and into a remnant low soon thereafter. The NHC forecast is following SHIPS guidance. The cyclone appears to be moving toward the west-northwest or 300 degrees at 11 kt around the periphery of the subtropical ridge. Given that Celia is already weakening and becoming a shallow system, it will be steered by the low-level flow on a general west to west-northwest track for the next several days until dissipation. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 19.5N 133.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 20.3N 135.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 21.2N 137.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 21.7N 139.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 15/1800Z 22.0N 142.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 16/1800Z 22.5N 147.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 17/1800Z 23.5N 151.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 18/1800Z 24.0N 156.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Avila
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