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Tropical Storm CELIA Forecast Discussion Number 30
2016-07-14 04:37:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT WED JUL 13 2016 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 140237 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042016 800 PM PDT WED JUL 13 2016 After Celia was nearly devoid of deep convection earlier today, infrared satellite images indicate that convection has made a bit of comeback over the northern portion of the circulation. The initial intensity is being held at 45 kt, which is in agreement with the Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB, and a partial ASCAT-B pass from a few hours ago. Celia is currently over cool 24 C waters, and although the waters could warm a little along the forecast track, they are expected to stay below 26 C. In addition, the tropical cyclone will be moving into an environment of increasing westerly shear and drier air. These conditions should cause weakening, and the official forecast shows Celia degenerating into a remnant low by 36 hours. The global models suggest that the remnant low could persist for several days over the central Pacific. The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at 11 kt, and is being steered on the southwestern periphery of a sprawling mid-level ridge centered over northern Mexico and the southern United States. A westward turn is expected in a day or two, when Celia becomes a shallow system and is steered by the low-level trade wind flow. The models are tightly clustered, and the NHC official track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 19.9N 134.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 20.8N 136.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 21.5N 138.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 21.9N 140.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 16/0000Z 22.2N 143.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/0000Z 22.9N 148.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 18/0000Z 23.6N 152.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/0000Z 24.5N 157.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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