je.st
news
Tropical Storm CELIA Forecast Discussion Number 31
2016-07-14 11:01:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT THU JUL 14 2016 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 140901 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042016 200 AM PDT THU JUL 14 2016 Although conventional satellite imagery indicates some decrease in overall deep convection coverage this morning, a 0558 UTC ASCAT overpass revealed numerous 45 kt winds over the northern half of the system. West-southwesterly shear appears to be undercutting the upper easterly diffluent flow aloft, subsequently, creating a structural tilt and displacing the circulation center to the south of the convective mass. The initial intensity is held at 45 kt based on the aforementioned scatterometer pass. Celia is traversing gradually decreasing sea surface temperatures, and the large-scale models all indicate that the cyclone will encounter moderate to strong westerly shear by the 72 hour forecast period. Therefore, the cyclone should commence a weakening trend today, and become a depression by tonight. The official forecast is based primarily on a blend of the LGEM and decay SHIPS and reflects a degeneration of the cyclone into a remnant low in 36 hours. The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 295/11 kt, around the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge anchored to the north of the cyclone. Guidance shows that Celia should turn westward by the 36 hour period as the cyclone decays into a shallow system and is steered by the low-level trades. The NHC forecast is weighed heavily on the multi-model consensus, and is adjusted slightly to the south of the previous forecast beyond day 3. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 20.3N 135.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 21.0N 137.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 21.6N 139.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 21.9N 142.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 16/0600Z 22.2N 144.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/0600Z 22.9N 149.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 18/0600Z 23.5N 153.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/0600Z 24.5N 158.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Roberts
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Latest from this category |
All news |
||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||