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Tropical Storm CELIA Forecast Discussion Number 32
2016-07-14 16:46:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT THU JUL 14 2016 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 141446 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042016 800 AM PDT THU JUL 14 2016 Celia has continued to maintain a small area of deep convection this morning, however recent microwave imagery shows that the area of cold cloud tops has become separated from the low-level center due to some southwesterly shear. Dvorak current intensity numbers of T3.0 from both TAFB and SAB and the earlier ASCAT data support keeping an initial wind speed of 45 kt. The remaining convection should gradually decrease in coverage while Celia moves over SSTs around 24C during the next day or so. This should result in weakening, and Celia is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone in 24 to 36 hours. After that time, the cyclone will be moving over slightly warmer SSTs, but moderate to strong westerly shear should prevent regeneration. A tight pressure gradient between the post-tropical cyclone and a strong high pressure area to the north will likely help maintain winds of around 30 kt with the system for several days. Recent microwave fixes indicate that Celia is moving west- northwestward, or 295/10 kt. The cyclone should continue moving west-northwestward today, but is forecast to turn westward on Friday as it becomes a shallow system and is steered by the low-level easterly flow. The NHC forecast track is close to the GFS, GFS ensemble mean, and the multi-model consensus, which are all in fairly close agreement. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 20.8N 136.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 21.4N 138.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 21.7N 140.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 22.0N 143.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 16/1200Z 22.3N 145.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/1200Z 23.0N 149.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 18/1200Z 23.7N 154.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/1200Z 24.5N 160.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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