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Tropical Storm CELIA Forecast Discussion Number 33
2016-07-14 22:42:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT THU JUL 14 2016 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 142042 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042016 200 PM PDT THU JUL 14 2016 Celia continues to produce convective bands over the northern portion of the circulation, however the clouds tops have gradually warmed today. Despite decreasing Dvorak T-numbers, a recent ASCAT pass revealed a large area of 40 to 45 kt winds over the northern and northwestern portion of the circulation. Therefore, the initial wind speed remains 45 kt for this advisory. The tropical cyclone should weaken during the next 12 to 24 hours while it moves over SSTs of around 24C and into an area of moderate west-northwesterly shear. Celia is forecast to become post-tropical in 12 to 24 hours, and weaken to a remnant low within a couple of days. The cyclone will be moving over slightly warmer waters in 2 to 3 days, but strong westerly shear and drier mid-level air should prevent regeneration. A tight pressure gradient between the remnant low and a strong high pressure area to the north will likely help maintain winds of around 30 kt with the system for several days. Celia has been moving west-northwestward or 295/12 kt. The cyclone is forecast to turn westward on Friday as it becomes a shallow system and is steered by the low-level easterly flow. The track guidance is in good agreement on this scenario and the NHC forecast is near an average of the latest GFS and ECMWF models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 21.4N 138.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 21.8N 139.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 22.1N 142.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 16/0600Z 22.3N 144.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 16/1800Z 22.8N 147.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/1800Z 23.5N 151.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 18/1800Z 24.2N 156.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/1800Z 25.2N 161.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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