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Tropical Storm CELIA Forecast Discussion Number 34
2016-07-15 04:42:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT THU JUL 14 2016 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 150242 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042016 800 PM PDT THU JUL 14 2016 Deep convection within Celia has been steadily deteriorating with only a few patches of moderately cold cloud tops existing in the northern semicircle. Consistent with this downward trend, the SAB and TAFB subjective Dvorak classifications have dropped to current intensity numbers of 2.0 and 2.5, respectively, suggesting an intensity of 30-35 kt. However, a recent ASCAT-A scatterometer pass indicated that peak winds near 50 kt were still occurring. Assuming some weakening since that time, the initial intensity is assessed at 45 kt. Despite the resilience of the vortex today, Celia should soon succumb to the effects of cool 24-25 deg C SSTs, a stable atmosphere, and convergent upper-level flow. Thus it is anticipated the the system will lose its deep convection and become a post-tropical cyclone on Friday and degenerate to a remnant low by Saturday. Due in part to the strong synoptic-scale pressure gradient to Celia's north, the system should be able to maintain peak winds of about 30 kt for the next few days. The NHC intensity forecast is based upon the IVCN consensus, in which the statistical models dissipate Celia more quickly, while the dynamical models hold on to Celia perhaps too robustly. Celia is moving toward the west-northwest at about 12 kt due to the steering influence of a strong subtropical ridge to its northeast. As the cyclone decays, it should be carried along in the low-level easterly trade wind flow toward the west at about the same forward speed. The NHC track forecast is based upon the TVCN consensus, which shows a tight packing of its individual members. On the forecast track, Celia is expected to move into the Central Pacific basin tomorrow morning. The scatterometer pass indicated that the tropical-storm-force wind radii were somewhat larger than earlier analyzed. Consistent with a larger-sized circulation, an altimeter pass showed that the extent of 12-ft seas was also substantially larger than indicated in the last advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 21.8N 139.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 22.2N 140.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 22.3N 143.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 16/1200Z 22.4N 145.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/0000Z 22.8N 148.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/0000Z 23.8N 152.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/0000Z 24.5N 157.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 20/0000Z 25.4N 162.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Landsea
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