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Tropical Storm CELIA Forecast Discussion Number 35
2016-07-15 10:40:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT FRI JUL 15 2016 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 150840 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042016 200 AM PDT FRI JUL 15 2016 Enhanced infrared imagery and a recent SSMIS microwave overpass show all that remains of Celia's deep convective cloud pattern is a fragmented curved band displaced about 60 nm north-northeast of the exposed circulation center. The initial intensity is lowered to 40 kt, but is quite a bit higher than the subjective satellite intensity estimates out of respect for the 45-50 kt winds that were depicted in the earlier 14/1912 UTC ASCAT pass. Celia should continue to gradually spin down, due to the sub-24C SSTs and the surrounding stable air mass, and become a post-tropical cyclone by tonight. Although the latest Remote Sensing System's latest SST analysis indicates slightly warmer SSTs of 25-26C ahead of Celia, the global models still show increasing westerly shear in 36 hours, which is expected to hamper any regeneration potential. The intensity forecast is an update of the previous advisory and is hedged toward the multi-model consensus and the GFS/ECMWF large-scale models. Celia has been moving west-northwestward or 285/11 kt. The cyclone is forecast to turn westward later today as it weakens further, becoming a shallow system, and is steered by the low-level trades. The model guidance reflects this scenario well and the official NHC forecast splits between the previous forecast track and the multi-model consensus. Celia has moved into the Central Pacific basin. Therefore, this is the last advisory on this system by the National Hurricane Center. Subsequent advisories will be issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu, Hawaii. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 22.0N 140.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 22.2N 142.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 16/0600Z 22.4N 144.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 16/1800Z 22.7N 146.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/0600Z 23.2N 148.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/0600Z 24.1N 153.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/0600Z 25.0N 158.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 20/0600Z 26.3N 163.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Roberts
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