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Tropical Storm CELIA Forecast Discussion Number 8
2016-07-08 16:52:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT FRI JUL 08 2016 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 081452 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042016 900 AM MDT FRI JUL 08 2016 The cloud pattern of the tropical depression has become better organized, with first-light visible imagery showing a ragged central dense overcast surrounded by a complex of outer bands. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates are 30-35 kt, while AMSU and Advanced Dvorak technique estimates from CIMSS are near 50 kt. Based on this, the depression is upgraded to Tropical Storm Celia with winds of 40 kt. The initial motion is 275/6. There is little change from the forecast philosophy from the previous advisory. Celia should be steered westward with an increase in forward speed by a building subtropical ridge to the north through the next 2 to 3 days. After that time, a west-northwestward turn is forecast as the system nears the southwestern edge of the ridge. The guidance has nudged a little to the north for the first 36 hours or so, and thus this part of the forecast track is also adjusted northward. Otherwise, the track is an update of the previous NHC advisory. Celia is forecast to be in an environment of light vertical wind shear for the next 3-4 days. However, during the next 24-36 hours the cyclone will pass near or over an area of cooler sea surface temperatures left in the wake of Hurricane Blas. This should slow intensification during this time. The storm is expected to reach warmer water from 36-96 hours and significant strengthening is expected at that time. The intensity forecast calls for a peak intensity of 90 kt, which is below that forecast by the SHIPS and LGEM models. From 96-120 hours, Celia should again encounter cooler sea surface temperatures, which should cause the cyclone to weaken. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 12.6N 112.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 12.9N 114.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 13.3N 116.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 13.5N 118.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 13.8N 120.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 11/1200Z 14.5N 125.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 12/1200Z 16.0N 129.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 13/1200Z 17.5N 133.0W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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