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Tropical Storm CHANTAL Forecast Discussion Number 7
2013-07-09 17:07:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST TUE JUL 09 2013 000 WTNT43 KNHC 091507 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013 1100 AM AST TUE JUL 09 2013 THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS NOT DISTINCT BUT EXCELLENT RADAR DATA FROM BARBADOS AND MARTINIQUE SHOW THE WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CHANTAL MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD ABOUT 25 KNOTS BETWEEN MARTINIQUE AN ST. LUCIA. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE REPORTED FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 70 TO 75 KT NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER EARLIER TODAY WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1003 MB. SINCE THAT TIME...THE PRESSURE HAS LEVELED OFF TO ABOUT 1006 MB. BASED ON MORE REPRESENTIVE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE PLANE...AND SURROUNDING ISLANDS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 50 KNOTS. THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF CHANTAL IS NOT VERY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION...AND ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE WINDS IS FORECAST BEFORE CHANTAL CROSSES HISPANIOLA. THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE IN THE AREA OF THE BAHAMAS FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...AND ONLY SMALL STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED AFTER THE CYCLONE CROSSES HISPANIOLA. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE TREND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS. CHANTAL IS RACING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 25 KNOTS. I AM SURPRISED THE SYSTEM EVEN HAS A CLOSED CIRCULATION MOVING AT THAT SPEED. CHANTAL IS BEING STEERED BY A RATHER STRONG EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...AS THE STORM MOVES OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND HISPANIOLA...THE HIGH TO THE NORTH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. BY DAY 4 AND 5 THE STERING CURRENTS WILL BE WEAK AND CHANTAL WILL PROBABLY MOVE VERY SLOWLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS BASICALLY ON TOP OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 14.4N 61.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 15.8N 65.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 17.4N 68.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 19.3N 71.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 11/1200Z 21.3N 73.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 12/1200Z 24.5N 76.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 13/1200Z 26.5N 77.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 14/1200Z 27.5N 78.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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