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Tropical Storm CHANTAL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2013-07-08 04:59:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUL 08 2013 000 FONT13 KNHC 080258 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013 0300 UTC MON JUL 08 2013 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 1 2 2 4 20 30 TROP DEPRESSION 11 13 11 11 16 37 37 TROPICAL STORM 87 77 70 61 60 41 32 HURRICANE 2 8 17 27 20 3 1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 2 7 15 22 18 3 1 HUR CAT 2 X 1 2 3 2 X X HUR CAT 3 X X 1 1 1 X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 40KT 45KT 50KT 55KT 45KT 35KT 30KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 3(14) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 2(16) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 1(12) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) 1(14) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) X(13) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 1(18) CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 16(32) 2(34) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) GUANTANAMO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 1(13) MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) X(16) KINGSTON 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 11(38) X(38) LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) 1(11) LES CAYES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 34(34) 5(39) X(39) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 36(36) 3(39) X(39) CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) CAPE BEATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 1(24) X(24) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 36(37) X(37) X(37) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SANTO DOMINGO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PONCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 22(33) X(33) X(33) PONCE 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN JUAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 14(24) X(24) X(24) SAN JUAN 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) 7(21) X(21) X(21) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) 23(23) 7(30) X(30) X(30) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) 11(11) 19(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GUADELOUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) AVES 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 50(52) 3(55) X(55) X(55) AVES 50 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) AVES 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) 23(23) 29(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) DOMINICA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) DOMINICA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) 39(39) 19(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) MARTINIQUE 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) MARTINIQUE 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) 36(36) 15(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) SAINT LUCIA 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) SAINT LUCIA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) 19(19) 10(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) SAINT VINCENT 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAINT VINCENT 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BARBADOS 34 X 1( 1) 44(45) 2(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) BARBADOS 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) BARBADOS 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GRENADA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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