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Tropical Storm CHANTAL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2013-07-09 22:56:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUL 09 2013 000 FONT13 KNHC 092056 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013 2100 UTC TUE JUL 09 2013 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 1 12 12 10 12 24 TROP DEPRESSION 1 8 40 33 25 27 33 TROPICAL STORM 84 69 45 49 57 53 40 HURRICANE 15 22 3 5 8 7 3 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 14 19 3 5 8 6 3 HUR CAT 2 1 2 X 1 1 1 1 HUR CAT 3 1 1 X X X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 55KT 60KT 35KT 40KT 45KT 45KT 40KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) MAYPORT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 6(16) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 4(14) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 4(19) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 4(19) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) 3(21) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 12(19) 3(22) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) 2(16) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 13(30) 2(32) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 28(30) 4(34) X(34) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) 2(26) X(26) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 15(15) 19(34) 1(35) X(35) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 10(19) 1(20) X(20) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) GRAND TURK 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) LES CAYES 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X 8( 8) 25(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CAPE BEATA 34 X 22(22) 6(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) CAPE BEATA 50 X 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CAPE BEATA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PUERTO PLATA 34 1 16(17) 15(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) SANTO DOMINGO 34 1 72(73) 1(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X 15(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) SANTO DOMINGO 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PONCE 34 27 7(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) SAN JUAN 34 8 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) SAINT THOMAS 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAINT CROIX 34 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) AVES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) AVES 50 10 X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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