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Tropical Storm COLIN Forecast Discussion Number 2
2016-06-05 22:53:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2016 000 WTNT43 KNHC 052053 TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016 400 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2016 The depression has changed little in organization since this morning. The center is exposed well to the west of a linear band of deep convection that extends from the southeastern Gulf of Mexico southward across western Cuba and into the northwestern Caribbean Sea. The initial intensity has been held at 30 kt. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is currently sampling the convective band to see if there are stronger winds. Although environmental conditions are not very conducive for strengthening, the depression is expected to become a tropical storm before it reaches the coast of Florida late Monday. The NHC forecast is closest to the GFS and ECMWF models that indicate modest deepening and bring the system to tropical storm strength tonight or Monday. The system is forecast to become an extratropical cyclone over the western Atlantic in 2 to 3 days. The depression is moving northward at about 10 kt. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged from the previous advisory. The depression is expected to move north-northeastward at a faster forward speed between a mid- to upper-level trough over eastern Texas and a ridge over the western Atlantic. The track guidance remains in very good agreement through 48 hours. Later in the forecast period, the cyclone is forecast to turn northeastward in deep-layer southwesterly flow over the western Atlantic. The primary hazards with this system are expected to be flooding from heavy rains and some coastal flooding from storm surge. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 23.3N 87.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 25.1N 87.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 28.0N 85.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 31.0N 82.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 48H 07/1800Z 34.0N 76.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 08/1800Z 41.9N 58.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 09/1800Z 48.0N 44.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 10/1800Z 53.5N 35.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brown
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