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Tropical Storm COSME Forecast Discussion Number 14
2013-06-26 22:33:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT WED JUN 26 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 262033 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 200 PM PDT WED JUN 26 2013 COSME CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. A COMBINATION OF CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE EYEWALL HAS DISSIPATED...AND THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED JUST TO THE EAST OF THE REMAINING CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 50 KT BASED ON THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY INTENSITY AND THE DECAY OF THE CLOUD PATTERN SINCE THAT TIME. THIS IS A LITTLE BELOW THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...WHICH ARE CURRENTLY CONSTRAINED BY THE DECAY RULES OF THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/11. A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF COSME SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY WEST- NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HR...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WEST EXPECTED AFTER THAT TIME. SOME DECELERATION MAY OCCUR AROUND 96-120 HOURS AS THE REMNANTS OF COSME APPROACH A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK LIES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. COSME SHOULD CONTINUE TO QUICKLY WEAKEN OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 21C-24C. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DECAY TO A CONVECTIONLESS REMNANT LOW BY 36 HOURS...AND THIS COULD OCCUR EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD REMAIN IDENTIFIABLE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE EXTENSIVE 12-FT SEAS RADII ARE THE RESULT OF LONG-FETCH SOUTHERLY CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW GENERATING LARGE SWELLS...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 19.3N 116.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 19.9N 118.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 20.8N 121.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 21.6N 124.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 28/1800Z 21.9N 126.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 29/1800Z 22.0N 132.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 30/1800Z 22.0N 135.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/1800Z 22.0N 139.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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