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Tropical Storm COSME Forecast Discussion Number 16
2013-06-27 10:32:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT THU JUN 27 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 270832 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 200 AM PDT THU JUN 27 2013 ALL ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH COSME HAS DISAPPEARED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THAT THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS OF COSME HAVE DECOUPLED...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER. THE INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT...NEAR AN AVERAGE OF A PAIR OF ASCAT PASSES FROM 0445 AND 0530 UTC. WITH THE CYCLONE FORECAST TO MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS FOR THE NEXT 24H...COSME IS PROBABLY FINISHED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH ORGANIZED CONVECTION UNLIKELY TO REDEVELOP. REMNANT LOW STATUS IS LIKELY LATE TODAY ALONG WITH A SLOW WEAKENING OF THE WINDS...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A BIT FASTER AND TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...290/14. THE CYCLONE CONTINUES ON TRACK AS IT REMAINS SOUTH OF A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE REMNANTS OF COSME WILL PROBABLY TURN WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE...AND SLOW SOMEWHAT IN A COUPLE DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC TRACK CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 20.1N 119.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 20.7N 121.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 28/0600Z 21.4N 124.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 28/1800Z 21.8N 127.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 29/0600Z 21.8N 130.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/0600Z 21.8N 134.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/0600Z 22.0N 139.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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