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Tropical Storm COSME Forecast Discussion Number 5
2013-06-24 16:42:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT MON JUN 24 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 241441 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 800 AM PDT MON JUN 24 2013 A LARGE BURST OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF COSME BEGAN JUST AFTER 0600 UTC AND HAS PERSISTED SINCE THAT TIME. SOME NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR STILL APPEARS TO BE AFFECTING THE CYCLONE...YET TAFB AND SAB BOTH PROVIDED INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KT. THE OBJECTIVE UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE IS EVEN HIGHER AT 50 KT. EITHER WAY...COSME IS STRENGTHENING...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING SET AT 45 KT ON THIS ADVISORY. THE CENTER HAS JUST RECENTLY BECOME EASIER TO LOCATE BASED ON A 1241 UTC SSMIS OVERPASS AND THE FIRST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES. THE BLOW-UP OF CONVECTION APPEARS TO HAVE CAUSED THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER TO JUMP TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...BUT SMOOTHING THE TRACK YIELDS A 12-HOUR MOTION OF 315/11 KT. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. ANOMALOUSLY STRONG MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN U.S. IN 2-3 DAYS...WHICH WILL TEND TO STEER COSME WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS. THERE IS VERY LITTLE SPREAD AMONG THE TRACK MODELS...AND THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. THE GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AROUND COSME SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY CONDUCIVE FOR THE CYCLONE TO CONTINUE STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. THIS PERIOD ALSO HAPPENS TO COINCIDE WITH THE TIME THAT THE CYCLONE IS OVER WATER WARMER THAN 26C. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INTENSITIES HAVE BEEN INCREASED DURING THE FIRST 72 HOURS MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RECENT STRENGTHENING...AND THEY ARE VERY SIMILAR TO THE FORECAST SHOWN BY THE LGEM. WEAKENING SHOULD STILL BEGIN BY 72 HOURS...WITH THE CYCLONE LIKELY DEGENERATING TO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 14.1N 105.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 15.0N 107.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 16.0N 110.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 16.7N 112.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 26/1200Z 17.5N 114.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 27/1200Z 19.0N 120.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 28/1200Z 20.0N 125.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 29/1200Z 20.0N 130.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BERG
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