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Tropical Storm COSME Forecast Discussion Number 6
2013-06-24 22:33:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT MON JUN 24 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 242033 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 200 PM PDT MON JUN 24 2013 THE CENTER OF COSME IS LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A LARGE AREA OF COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CONVECTIVE BANDING NOW DEVELOPING NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...AND THERE IS NOW A LITTLE MORE CURVATURE TO THE CONVECTIVE BANDS NEAR THE CENTER ITSELF. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 50 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES. THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE SYSTEM REACHES THE 26C ISOTHERM IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE OBSERVED STRENGTHENING...AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A MORE CONFIDENT 310/12...AS THE CENTER HAS BEEN EASIER TO TRACK FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS IN VISIBLE IMAGERY. THE CYCLONE HAS MOVED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT...OR NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT ASIDE FROM THAT THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED THROUGH THE PERIOD. COSME IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. LATE IN THE PERIOD...AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES...COSME IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST WHILE IT WEAKENS TO A REMNANT LOW. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH THE FIRST 48 HOURS DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION AND AN ADJUSTMENT TOWARD THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND...THE NHC TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 15.0N 107.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 16.0N 108.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 17.0N 111.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 17.7N 113.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 26/1800Z 18.3N 116.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 27/1800Z 19.5N 121.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 28/1800Z 20.5N 126.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 29/1800Z 20.5N 131.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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