je.st
news
Tropical Storm Carlos Forecast Discussion Number 7
2021-06-14 10:36:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Mon Jun 14 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 140835 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Carlos Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021 200 AM PDT Mon Jun 14 2021 The satellite presentation of Carlos has continued to erode early this morning, with only three remnant convective cells noted rotating around the center. As a result, subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have fallen sharply. Thus, the initial intensity has also been lowered to 35 kt, which could be generous. The initial motion estimate is 255/06 kt. Carlos is forecast by the global and regional models to be steered west-southwestward to westward throughout the 5-day period by a strong low- to mid-level subtropical ridge situated to its north and northwest. The latest model guidance has come into much better agreement on this track scenario, especially compared to this time yesterday, and the new NHC track forecast follows suit and lies close to a blend of the HCCA and TVCE consensus track models. Although sea-surface temperatures are expected to remain warm enough to support a tropical cyclone, the continued ingestion of cooler, drier, and more stable air that now completely surrounds Carlos is forecast to continue to erode the central deep convection, with the cyclone weakening a tropical depression later today. By 36-48h, southwesterly vertical wind shear in excess of 20 kt is expected to hasten the weakening process, resulting in Carlos degenerating into a remnant low. Although there will likely be periodic short-lived bursts of convection, especially at night, the general trend should be gradual weakening throughout the 120-h forecast period, perhaps even faster than indicated by the official intensity forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 11.4N 127.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 11.2N 128.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 10.8N 129.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 10.4N 130.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 10.2N 132.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 16/1800Z 10.2N 133.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/0600Z 10.5N 134.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 18/0600Z 11.0N 136.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/0600Z 11.5N 137.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: number
discussion
carlos
storm
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Latest from this category |
All news |
||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||