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Tropical Storm Carlos Forecast Discussion Number 8
2021-06-14 16:50:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Mon Jun 14 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 141432 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Carlos Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021 800 AM PDT Mon Jun 14 2021 After being nearly devoid of deep convection for much of the night, a new burst of convection has redeveloped near the center of the cyclone's circulation. A blend of the latest Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and SAB support maintaining an initial intensity of 35 kt for this advisory. Carlos is moving west-southwest at 7 kt, steered by a low- to mid-level ridge to its north. Most of the track guidance is now in good agreement on keeping this ridge intact over the next several days, forcing Carlos on the same west-southwest trajectory for the next day or so, followed by a gradual turn to the west by midweek. The latest NHC track forecast is near the previous one through 48 h, and a little faster and south of it beyond that time. Most guidance remains to the left of the latest NHC forecast, so additional adjustments may be required later today. Satellite images show a vast area of dry and stable air to the north and west of Carlos, with stratocumulus being drawn into the western portion of the cyclone's circulation. This undoubtedly helped to contribute to the sputtering of convective activity overnight. The ongoing intrusions of dry, stable air should continue to periodically disrupt the development of deep convection over the next day or so, which should cause Carlos to slowly weaken. By 36-48 h, southwesterly vertical wind shear in excess of 20 kt is expected to hasten the weakening process, resulting in Carlos degenerating into a remnant low by midweek. Thereafter, only sporadic convection is expected to develop in association with the remnant low as it gradually spins down. The latest NHC intensity forecast is nearly the same as the previous one and is in agreement with the bulk of the guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 11.3N 128.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 10.9N 129.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 10.6N 130.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 10.3N 132.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 10.2N 133.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 17/0000Z 10.2N 134.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/1200Z 10.3N 135.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 18/1200Z 10.7N 137.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/1200Z 11.1N 139.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto
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