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Tropical Storm Carlotta Forecast Discussion Number 10
2018-06-17 04:17:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 16 2018 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 170217 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Carlotta Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042018 1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 16 2018 Carlotta has surprised us this evening. Radar images from Acapulco, Mexico, indicate that the storm has strengthened and its structure has improved significantly. The radar data indicate that Carlotta has a well-defined, but tiny, inner core and the eye has been contracting during the past few hours. In addition, the radar echoes in the eyewall has been getting stronger and more symmetric around the eye. The initial wind speed is set to 55 kt, in agreement with a Dvorak classification from TAFB. Carlotta is very close to the coast of southern Mexico and, in fact, the northern eyewall is partially onshore. Since the storm is expected to interact with land and is forecast to move inland overnight or Sunday morning, it appears unlikely that Carlotta will strengthen much more. Once inland, fast weakening is expected and Carlotta should dissipate over the high terrain of Mexico Sunday night or early Monday. The storm has moved more to the west than previous thought, likely due to the influence of a narrow mid-level ridge to its north. The new forecast is adjusted well to the west of the previous one, and is in fair agreement with the latest consensus models. Regardless of whether the center moves inland, the threat of heavy rainfall and potential of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides continue over the southern parts of Guerrero and Oaxaca. The rainfall threat will be enhanced by moist southwesterly flow over the southern Sierra Madre mountains of Mexico. For details, please see products issued by your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 16.6N 99.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 17.0N 100.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 24H 18/0000Z 17.5N 100.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 18/1200Z 18.0N 101.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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