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Tropical Storm Carlotta Forecast Discussion Number 11
2018-06-17 10:40:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Jun 17 2018 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 170840 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Carlotta Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042018 400 AM CDT Sun Jun 17 2018 The Acapulco Radar from the Mexican Weather Service has been very useful in diagnosis and tracking Carlotta tonight. Now that a portion of the circulation is interacting with land, the radar presentation has deteriorated compared with several hours ago, and the cloud pattern observed on satellite has become shapeless. The cyclone is so tiny than even the ASCAT did not completely identified the cyclone, but at least it measured a few 35-kt wind vectors. None of the global models acknowledge the presence of Carlotta in the analysis. Dvorak T-numbers from al agencies are decreasing, and on this basis, the initial intensity has been lowered to 45 kt. Since the interaction with land is expected to continue, the NHC forecast calls for gradual weakening, and this will occur at a faster rate if the cyclone moves inland within the next 12 to 24 hours as anticipated. Yesterday, the forecast was for Carlotta to move northeastward or northward. The steering currents changed slightly tonight, and instead, the tiny cyclone is now moving toward the northwest at about 6 kt or faster. The limited available guidance suggests that this general motion should continue until dissipation in 36 hours or so. Since the cyclone is not depicted by the global models, the forecast is highly uncertain. Given the northwest track, the Government of Mexico has extended the Tropical Storm Warning westward along the coast. It must be emphasized that regardless of whether the center moves inland or continues moving along the coast, the main threat of heavy rainfall and potential of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides continue over the southern parts of Guerrero, Oaxaca and Michoacan. The rainfall threat will be enhanced by moist southwesterly flow over the southern Sierra Madre mountains of Mexico. For details, please see products issued by your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 17.0N 100.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 17.4N 101.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 18/0600Z 17.9N 101.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 18/1800Z 18.5N 102.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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