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Tropical Storm Carlotta Forecast Discussion Number 12
2018-06-17 16:35:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Jun 17 2018 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 171434 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Carlotta Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042018 1000 AM CDT Sun Jun 17 2018 The system has become quite disorganized this morning and, even with high-resolution visible satellite images, it is extremely difficult to locate a center. Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and SAB continue to decrease and the intensity estimate is lowered to 35 kt kt for this advisory. Hopefully, we will receive data from some upcoming ASCAT scatterometer overpasses in a few hours that will help us better locate the center of circulation. Carlotta is likely to continue to spin down due to the interaction with mountainous terrain and the system should degenerate into a remnant low tomorrow, or sooner. Given the uncertainty in the location, the initial motion estimate, 305/6 kt, is also highly uncertain. The steering currents around Carlotta remain weak, but the cyclone is expected to move slowly northwestward between a couple of mid-level anticyclones. The official forecast is a little to the left of the previous one but still north of most of the track guidance for the first 12 to 24 hours of the forecast. Most of the track models lose the analyzed vortex after that time. It must again be emphasized that, regardless of the exact track of Carlotta, the main threat of heavy rainfall and potential of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides continue over the southern parts of Guerrero and Michoacan. The rainfall threat will be enhanced by moist southwesterly flow over the southern Sierra Madre mountains of Mexico. For details, please see products issued by your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 17.2N 101.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 17.7N 102.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 18/1200Z 18.0N 102.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 19/0000Z 18.3N 102.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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