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Tropical Storm Chris Forecast Discussion Number 2
2024-07-01 04:58:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 010258 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Chris Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032024 1000 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Reports from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds are now near 35 kt so the system is being named at this time. The tropical cyclone continues on a slightly north of due west heading with an initial motion estimate of 280/11 kt. A strong mid- level ridge associated with a high pressure system centered over the southern U.S. Plains should continue to steer the system mainly westward through tomorrow, i.e. until dissipation. The official track forecast is similar to the previous NHC prediction and about in the middle of the objective guidance. Since the cyclone should make landfall within the next few hours, little additional strengthening is anticipated. Chris should weaken quickly after moving inland and dissipate over the mountainous terrain of Mexico. The primary hazard associated with this system is expected to be heavy rainfall, which will result in life-threatening flash floods and mud slides over portions of eastern Mexico tonight and into Monday. Key messages: 1. Heavy rainfall will result in areas of flooding across eastern Mexico into Monday, with mudslides possible in areas of higher terrain. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected overnight in the tropical storm warnings area in Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 20.0N 96.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 20.3N 97.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Tropical Storm Chris (AT3/AL032024)
2024-07-01 04:57:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM CHRIS... ...BRINGING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO... As of 10:00 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 the center of Chris was located near 20.0, -96.2 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Chris Public Advisory Number 2
2024-07-01 04:57:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 010257 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Chris Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032024 1000 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 ...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM CHRIS... ...BRINGING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.0N 96.2W ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM SE OF TUXPAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cabo Rojo to Puerto Veracruz A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 6 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Chris was located near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 96.2 West. Chris is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected during the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center will move inland early Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Chris will begin to weaken after landfall and will likely dissipate later on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Chris can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. RAINFALL: Chris is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches across portions of eastern Mexico through Monday. Maximum rainfall totals around 12 inches are possible across the higher terrain of the Mexican states of Guanajuato, Queretaro, and San Luis Potosi. This rainfall will result in area of flooding, with mudslides possible in areas of higher terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Storm Chris, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area during the next few hours. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
Category: Transportation and Logistics