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Tropical Storm Cindy Forecast Discussion Number 8
2017-06-21 16:47:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017 000 WTNT43 KNHC 211447 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Cindy Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017 1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017 Cindy has the overall appearance of a subtropical cyclone this morning with a convective cluster just northwest of the center and additional convection in a ragged band well removed from the center in the eastern semicircle. However, there is more convection near the center than earlier, so the system remains a tropical cyclone on this advisory. Regular water vapor imagery and experimental low-level water vapor imagery from GOES-16 show that a significant amount of dry air is present just east of the center, and this is likely disrupting the convective organization. Surface observations and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft show that the maximum winds have decreased a little and are now near 45 kt. The data also show that the 34-kt wind radii have decreased over the northeastern quadrant. The initial motion is now 310/9. There is little change in either the track forecast philosophy or the track forecast from the previous advisory. Cindy is expected to turn northward and move through a break in the mid-level subtropical ridge along the northwest Gulf of Mexico coast. Later in the forecast period Cindy, or its remnants, should accelerate northeastward in the westerlies over the eastern United States. Given the presence of the dry air near the center and its affects on the convection, little change in strength is expected before landfall. Cindy should weaken after landfall and eventually become absorbed in a frontal system over the eastern United States just after 72 h. While the aforementioned dry air is sufficient to keep Cindy from intensifying, it will do little to reduce the overall rainfall threat. Heavy rainfall is expected to continue over portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast, which could cause life-threatening flash flooding in some locations. For more information on the flooding hazard, see products from your local National Weather Service office and the Weather Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 27.6N 92.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 28.5N 93.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 30.3N 93.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 23/0000Z 32.3N 93.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 23/1200Z 34.3N 91.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 24/1200Z 37.0N 81.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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