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Tropical Storm Claudette Forecast Discussion Number 7
2021-06-19 10:59:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 190859 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Claudette Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021 400 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 The system that we have been tracking for a few days finally has enough of a well-defined center and organized convection to be considered a tropical storm. While the organization is not classical by any means, and there are some hybrid characteristics, the cyclone most resembles a sheared tropical storm, so the system is now Tropical Storm Claudette. The initial wind speed remains 40 kt, in line with surface observations and radar. These winds are primarily occurring in a strong band on the eastern side of the cyclone well away from the center. Claudette is moving north-northeastward at about 10 kt. The storm should turn northeastward and east-northeastward over the next day or so while it moves around the northern side of the subtropical ridge and gradually weakens to a depression/post-tropical cyclone. The biggest change to the forecast is that almost all of the reliable global models, save the GFS, are showing the system regenerating near or offshore of the North Carolina coast in 60 to 72 hours. Thus the forecast has been extended from the last one and now shows the system as a tropical cyclone over the western Atlantic Ocean. The new intensity forecast is more conservative than most of the guidance, but is higher than the previous advisory. Extratropical transition is expected by 96 hours near Nova Scotia. Given the current and anticipated structure of this system, users should not focus on the exact track of the center, as rainfall and wind hazards are likely to extend well east of the center. Impacts along the northern Gulf coast will continue. Key Messages: 1. Claudette is expected to produce heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding across coastal Mississippi and Alabama, and the far western Florida Panhandle through the afternoon. Considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, will continue through the weekend along the central Gulf Coast, with flood impacts spreading northeastward into interior portions of the Southeast. 2. Tropical storm conditions are occurring along portions of the central Gulf Coast from east of Morgan City, Louisiana, to the Okaloosa/Walton County line, Florida, including New Orleans. These winds will spread inland and continue through this afternoon. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 29.6N 90.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 12H 19/1800Z 30.9N 89.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 20/0600Z 32.2N 87.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 20/1800Z 33.3N 84.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 21/0600Z 34.2N 80.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 21/1800Z 35.8N 76.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 22/0600Z 38.5N 71.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 96H 23/0600Z 47.0N 61.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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