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Tropical Storm Cosme Forecast Discussion Number 2
2019-07-06 22:40:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Jul 06 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 062040 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Cosme Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032019 200 PM PDT Sat Jul 06 2019 Cosme continues to have a lopsided appearance in satellite images, with all of its associated deep convection east of the center. While there have been some cells near the core of the cyclone, they have not lasted long due to plentiful dry air in the mid-levels. The initial wind speed is kept at 45 kt in agreement with recent ASCAT data, again well above any Dvorak estimates. While shear is clearly decreasing near the center, it will take some time for the large cyclone to mix out the aforementioned dry near and west of the core. In addition, Cosme has only about 36 hours over marginal SSTs before reaching cool waters. These factors indicate little significant strengthening this weekend, and a gradual weakening early next week due to cooler waters and higher shear. The HWRF shows some strengthening right before Cosme crosses into the cool waters, but the rest of the models holds Cosme's intensity flat or decreasing during the next few days. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, which goes with the weaker solution provided by the bulk of the models. The center has been difficult to track, but ASCAT and visible satellite suggest it is moving a bit slower and poleward than before, or 295/12. The storm is expected to be steered to the west- northwest during the next day or so due to a subtropical ridge over Mexico. However all of the models show a break in the ridge forming between 120-130W, which should induce a motion more to the northwest by Monday. Guidance has shifted a bit to the north on this cycle, and the ECMWF solution remains a bit of an outlier to the southwest. The new NHC forecast is adjusted slightly to the northeast of the previous one, but is southwest of the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 16.2N 116.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 16.9N 117.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 17.8N 119.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 18.8N 120.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 19.8N 121.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 09/1800Z 21.0N 122.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 10/1800Z 21.5N 125.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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