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Tropical Storm Cosme Forecast Discussion Number 3
2019-07-07 04:33:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Jul 06 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 070233 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Cosme Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032019 800 PM PDT Sat Jul 06 2019 There has been little overall change in the tropical storm's organization since the previous advisory. Deep convection continues to burst over the northeastern portion of Cosme's circulation, however it remains well removed from the center. The initial wind speed has been maintained at 45 kt, which is based on earlier ASCAT data and is still above the most recent Dvorak intensity estimates. It appears that Cosme is unlikely to strengthen any more. Dry air to the northwest of the cyclone and the sprawling structure of the system should hinder intensification while the system moves over 26-27 degree Celsius water during the next 12-18 hours. After that time, Cosme will reach cooler SSTs and gradual weakening should begin, and the cyclone is forecast to become post-tropical within a couple of days, if not sooner. The updated NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the latest statistical guidance and the various consensus aids. Visible satellite imagery has revealed several cloud swirls rotating within the storm's circulation, which has made tracking the center of the system a little more difficult than usual. Using a mean center of the various swirls yields an initial motion estimate of 300/10 kt. Cosme should continue to be steered west-northwestward during the next 12-24 hours by a mid-level ridge extending westward from northwestern Mexico. By Monday, the western portion of the ridge is expected to weaken which should induce a slower northwestward motion. Later in the period, the remnant low should turn back toward the west-northwest or northwest within the low-level trade wind flow. The guidance envelope did not change much this cycle and the new NHC track forecast is essentially an update of the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 16.7N 117.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 17.4N 118.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 18.3N 119.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 19.3N 120.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 20.0N 121.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 10/0000Z 21.1N 123.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 11/0000Z 21.5N 125.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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