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Tropical Storm Cosme Forecast Discussion Number 6
2019-07-07 22:33:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Jul 07 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 072032 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Cosme Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032019 200 PM PDT Sun Jul 07 2019 Deep convection has been pulsing since the previous advisory, with a small burst of thunderstorms having recently developed in the northwestern quadrant. Satellite data indicate that the low-level center is less than 45 nmi from the -30 deg C cloud tops and cirrus has been blowing off toward the southeast across the center, indications that convective feedback is still maintaining Cosme as a tropical cyclone. The initial intensity remains 35 kt for this advisory based on a few 30-33 kt vectors that were present in an 1813Z ASCAT-B partial scatterometer pass over the northwestern quadrant of Cosme's surface wind field. The initial motion estimate is 315/09 kt. Cosme is expected to move northwestward tonight and then turn toward the west-northwest by Monday afternoon, maintaining that motion throughout the remainder of the forecast period as the shallow circulation comes under the influence of the low-level easterly trade wind flow. The new NHC track forecast is a little north of the previous advisory track and is similar to a blend of the HCCA, TVCE, and TVDG consensus models. Cosme has just passed over the 26-deg-C SST isotherm and water temperatures ahead of the cyclone are forecast to cool to near 24C in about 24 hours. The combination of cooler waters, entrainment of dry stable air, and increasing northwesterly wind shear is expected to bring about the demise of Cosme in 12-24 hours. The cyclone is expected to weaken to a tropical depression later tonight, becoming a post-tropical system on Monday, and dissipating by 96 hours, if not sooner. The new official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows the HCCA, FSSE, and IVCN intensity consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 18.6N 119.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 19.2N 119.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 19.9N 120.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 09/0600Z 20.4N 121.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 09/1800Z 20.9N 122.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 10/1800Z 21.7N 124.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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