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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 11
2020-07-09 10:31:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Thu Jul 09 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 090831 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 300 AM MDT Thu Jul 09 2020 Although deep convection has been increasing tonight in association with Cristina, the overall cloud pattern and structure of the storm has changed little and it continues to lack banding features. The satellite intensity estimates range from 45 to 60 kt, and a recent ASCAT pass showed maximum winds of around 40 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is held at a possibly generous 55 kt. Cristina has not strengthened as much as anticipated. However, the storm still has about another 36 hours in favorable environmental conditions of wind shear of 10 kt or less, mid-level humidities between 75 and 80 percent, and SSTs of 26 C or warmer. During that period it still seems likely that Cristina will strengthen and it could become a hurricane. After 36 hours, Cristina is expected to move over much cooler waters and into a notably drier and more stable air mass. These conditions should promote a steady weakening trend, and Cristina will likely become a remnant low in 4 or 5 days. The NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one and in good agreement with the IVCN consensus model. The storm is moving west-northwestward at about 10 kt. A mid-level ridge located over the southwestern U.S. is expected to strengthen in place, and that should cause Cristina to move a little faster to the west-northwest during the next few days. After that time, the weaker and likely vertically shallow storm should turn toward the west in the low-level trade wind flow. The model tracks remain tightly packed, and the new NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 16.8N 109.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 17.6N 110.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 18.6N 112.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 19.6N 115.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 20.3N 118.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 11/1800Z 20.9N 121.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 12/0600Z 21.1N 124.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 13/0600Z 21.2N 129.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 14/0600Z 21.4N 135.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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