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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 20
2020-07-11 16:35:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 AM HST Sat Jul 11 2020 924 WTPZ45 KNHC 111435 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 500 AM HST Sat Jul 11 2020 Over the past several hours, the coverage of deep convection around the center of Cristina has gradually decreased as the cyclone continues to move over relatively cool 24 C waters. The latest satellite intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS SATCON all support lowering the initial intensity to 55 kt. Cristina is forecast to move over even cooler waters and into a progressively drier and more stable air mass over the next couple of days. These conditions should cause the cyclone to steadily weaken. By 60 h, Cristina is forecast to have lost its deep convection near its center and become a remnant low. There is a chance that the convection could dissipate sooner than indicated, and Cristina could become a post-tropical cyclone while wind speeds are still greater than 30 kt. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one. Cristina is moving just north of due west at 12 kt. This motion is expected to continue for the next several days, as the cyclone is steered by a mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. early on, then by the low level easterlies once the system becomes a remnant low. The NHC forecast lies in the middle of tightly clustered track guidance, and is little changed from the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 20.6N 119.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 12/0000Z 20.9N 121.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 12/1200Z 21.2N 123.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 13/0000Z 21.6N 126.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 13/1200Z 22.1N 128.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 14/0000Z 22.6N 131.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/1200Z 23.1N 133.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/1200Z 23.8N 139.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 16/1200Z 24.0N 144.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto
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