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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 23

2020-07-12 10:34:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Jul 12 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 120834 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 200 AM PDT Sun Jul 12 2020 Conventional satellite and scatterometer data indicate that Cristina has weakened during the past several hours. Deep convection has become fragmented near the center of the cyclone, with only a small amount in the eastern semicircle. A blend of the satellite estimates from TAFB/SAB gives an initial wind speed of 40 kt for this advisory, and this value is also quite close to a recent scatterometer pass as well. Cristina should gradually lose strength during the next few days due to a combination of very cool waters and increasing shear, along with nearby dry air. These factors will likely cause the storm to transition into a non-convective remnant low on Monday. The intensity forecast is lowered from the previous one, mostly due to the decreased initial intensity, and the remnant low timing is earlier as well. The storm is moving a little north of due west, or 275/11. A well-defined subtropical ridge over the eastern Pacific should keep this general motion going for the next several days. The model guidance has changed little since the last cycle, so no significant changes were made to the track forecast. None of the global models hold onto the low-level circulation for long beyond 72 hours, so dissipation is now shown by day 4. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 20.7N 123.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 20.9N 125.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 21.2N 127.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 21.6N 130.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 14/0600Z 22.1N 132.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 14/1800Z 22.6N 135.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 15/0600Z 23.0N 138.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

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