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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-07-07 10:31:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Jul 07 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 070831 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 400 AM CDT Tue Jul 07 2020 Deep convection is gradually expanding over the center of Cristina and in curved bands over the western portion of the circulation. An ASCAT-B overpass from around 0430 UTC showed maximum winds of around 35 kt. Based on that data and Dvorak estimates of T2.5/35 kt from TAFB, SAB, and automated values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin, the initial wind speed is held at 35 kt. Cristina is expected to strengthen during the next few days due to the favorable environmental conditions of low wind shear and warm SSTs, and its developing compact inner core as observed in satellite data. The only limiting factor is some dry air that has entrained into the eastern portion of the circulation. However, given the largely conducive conditions for strengthening, the NHC intensity forecast lies at the high end of the model guidance during the next 3 days. Although it is not explicitly forecast, rapid intensification could occur sometime during the next couple of days. Cristina will likely be moving over SSTs below 26 C and into a drier and more stable air mass late this week and this weekend, and that should induce a weakening trend. This intensity forecast is mostly an update of the previous one and in best agreement with corrected consensus model HCCA. Satellite fixes indicate that Cristina is moving west-northwestward at about 11 kt. The track forecast reasoning is fairly straightforward. A mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. is expected to strengthen in place during the next several days. This should keep Cristina on a west-northwestward path well offshore of Mexico through the remainder of the week and into this weekend. Only minor changes were made to the previous NHC track forecast, and this prediction lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 11.5N 102.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 12.2N 104.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 13.3N 106.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 14.3N 108.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 15.3N 109.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 09/1800Z 16.3N 111.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 10/0600Z 17.3N 113.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 11/0600Z 18.9N 117.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 12/0600Z 20.5N 122.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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