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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 8
2020-07-08 16:58:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Jul 08 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 081457 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 900 AM MDT Wed Jul 08 2020 First light satellite images show that the convective organization of Cristina is gradually improving, while banding features are developing across the northern portion of the circulation. The center remains underneath the northeastern side of the main area of convection due to moderate shear, but this shear appears to be diminishing. The initial intensity has been increased to 50 kt, which is a blend of the subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. Cristina turned to the northwest and slowed down to about 10 kt this morning. A turn back toward the west-northwest is expected to occur later today or tonight, and this motion is forecast to continue for the next few days as the cyclone is steered by a large ridge centered over the southwestern United States. Later in the forecast period, a turn to the west is expected as the weakening cyclone becomes steered by the low-level easterlies. The track guidance is tightly clustered, and the NHC forecast lies near the middle of the envelope. The decreasing shear over Cristina combined with warm SSTs and a moist air mass should allow the cyclone to intensify over the next couple of days. After that time, the system will cross over the 26 C isotherm and enter into a drier and more stable atmospheric environment. This should cause a steady weakening trend to begin after 48 h. Although the forecast still shows Cristina as a tropical storm in 5 days, it is possible all of the deep convection would have dissipated by that time. The latest NHC forecast is very close to the intensity consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 14.6N 106.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 15.4N 108.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 16.6N 110.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 17.6N 112.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 18.5N 114.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 11/0000Z 19.5N 116.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 11/1200Z 20.2N 119.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 12/1200Z 21.0N 124.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 13/1200Z 21.5N 130.5W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto
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