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Tropical Storm DALILA Forecast Discussion Number 17
2013-07-03 22:35:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT WED JUL 03 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 032034 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 200 PM PDT WED JUL 03 2013 CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN WARMING RECENTLY...AND THE CDO HAS TAKEN ON A PATTERN THAT IS MORE INDICATIVE OF EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN DECREASING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND SUBJECTIVE DATA T-NUMBERS HAVE ALSO DECREASED. BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATES...DALILA HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A 60-KT TROPICAL STORM. THERE HAS BEEN VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. ALTHOUGH THE DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE INTENSITY COULD FLUCTUATE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...ALL OF THE MODELS GENERALLY FORECAST A SLOW WEAKENING TREND. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD A LITTLE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE NEW INITIAL INTENSITY...AND STILL SHOWS DALILA GRADUALLY WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS STILL OBSCURED...A COUPLE OF MICROWAVE PASSES SUGGEST THAT IT IS DISPLACED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF THE CDO. THE TROPICAL STORM HAS BEEN DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE DAY...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 230/3. DALILA IS BEING STEERED BY A LARGE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST...AND EVENTUALLY THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...IS EXPECTED AS THE RIDGE PROPAGATES EASTWARD. THE MODEL GUIDANCE STILL DOES NOT AGREE ON HOW QUICKLY THIS TURN WILL OCCUR...AND THERE IS A LOT OF SPREAD AT 3-5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH...BUT REMAINS NEAR THE FSSE AND GFS MODEL PREDICTIONS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 17.4N 108.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 17.1N 108.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 16.8N 109.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 16.8N 111.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 16.9N 112.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 17.6N 114.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 07/1800Z 18.0N 117.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 08/1800Z 18.5N 120.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER PASCH/ZELINSKY
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