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Tropical Storm DALILA Forecast Discussion Number 19
2013-07-04 10:32:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT THU JUL 04 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 040832 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 200 AM PDT THU JUL 04 2013 DALILA CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO ONGOING MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT...WITH THE CENTER NOW ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE REMAINING CONVECTION. BASED MAINLY ON CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO AN UNCERTAIN 45 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 265/4. A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD STEER DALILA GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO...THAT DALILA OR ITS REMNANTS COULD INTERACT WITH THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHEAST. SHOULD THIS INTERACTION OCCUR...DALILA COULD MOVE MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE CURRENT SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...CAUSING DALILA TO STEADILY WEAKEN. IN ADDITION...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AFTER 48 HOURS. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR DALILA TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...AND TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BOTH OF THESE EVENTS COULD OCCUR EARLIER THAN FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 17.5N 108.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 17.4N 109.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 17.4N 110.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 05/1800Z 17.5N 111.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 06/0600Z 17.9N 113.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 07/0600Z 18.5N 115.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/0600Z 19.0N 118.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 09/0600Z 19.0N 122.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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