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Tropical Storm DALILA Forecast Discussion Number 2
2013-06-30 10:36:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SUN JUN 30 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 300836 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 200 AM PDT SUN JUN 30 2013 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THERE HAS NOT BEEN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN. HOWEVER...THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE MORE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. ON THIS BASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 35 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH THE SHIPS MODEL IS CURRENTLY DIAGNOSING SMALL SHEAR OVER DALILA...WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW A SOUTHERLY FLOW AFFECTING THE CYCLONE CAUSING SLIGHT SHEAR. AS THE UPPER-TROUGH PRESENTLY LOCATED WEST OF DALILA WEAKENS...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR A MODEST STRENGTHENING AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. SHIPS MODEL IS NOT VERY ENTHUSIASTIC WITH DALILA...AND ONLY SHOWS SOME INTENSIFICATION. HWRF AND FL STATE SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS FORECAST A STRONGER CYCLONE. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/9 KNOTS. HOWEVER...DALILA WILL SOON ENCOUNTER A LARGE DEVELOPING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WHICH WILL FORCE THE CYCLONE TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. IN FACT...THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN IN THE PREVIOUS RUN...AND MOST OF THE MODELS UNANIMOUSLY TURN THE CYCLONE TO THE LEFT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS THIS MODEL TREND...BUT SINCE IT IS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY LATER TODAY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 14.6N 103.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 15.9N 103.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 01/0600Z 16.8N 104.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 01/1800Z 17.6N 105.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 02/0600Z 18.3N 106.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 03/0600Z 19.3N 108.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 04/0600Z 19.3N 109.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 05/0600Z 19.5N 111.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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