je.st
news
Tropical Storm DALILA Forecast Discussion Number 20
2013-07-04 16:55:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT THU JUL 04 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 041455 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 800 AM PDT THU JUL 04 2013 DRY AIR AND EASTERLY SHEAR HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON DALILA AS THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM HAS DIMINISHED VERY QUICKLY OVERNIGHT. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KT WHICH IS A BLEND OF THE LATEST T-NUMBERS AND EARLIER OSCAT DATA. ALTHOUGH DALILA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER MARGINALLY WARM SSTS FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO...THE DRY AIR AND SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE CYCLONE. DALILA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 36 HOURS...BUT THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER IF ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT REDEVELOP. DALILA APPEARS TO BE MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 6 KT. A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST AS THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE SHIFTS EASTWARD. LATER IN THE PERIOD...SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT DALILA OR ITS REMNANTS COULD INTERACT WITH THE NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE SOUTHEAST. BECAUSE OF THIS POSSIBILITY... THE TRACK DURING THE POST-TROPICAL PHASE IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 17.4N 109.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 17.3N 110.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 17.4N 111.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 17.7N 113.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/1200Z 18.0N 114.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/1200Z 18.5N 116.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/1200Z 18.8N 118.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Latest from this category |
All news |
||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||