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Tropical Storm DALILA Forecast Discussion Number 21
2013-07-04 22:38:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT THU JUL 04 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 042038 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 200 PM PDT THU JUL 04 2013 ALTHOUGH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REDEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION THIS AFTERNOON...DALILA BARELY QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT 35 KT AND IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT ASCAT DATA AND A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS DVORAK T- AND CI-NUMBERS. DRY AIR AND MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN EVEN THOUGH IT WILL REMAIN OVER SSTS OF 26 TO 27 DEGREES CELSIUS FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR SO. DALIA IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...BUT THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER. DALILA IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 6 KT. A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HINTS AT MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN DALIA AND THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO ITS SOUTHEAST. THIS IS LIKELY TO CAUSE THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TO DECELERATE IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. THE UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ONCE AGAIN SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AFTER 36 TO 48 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 17.3N 110.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 17.3N 111.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 17.5N 112.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 06/0600Z 17.8N 113.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/1800Z 18.0N 114.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/1800Z 18.3N 116.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/1800Z 18.3N 118.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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