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Tropical Storm DALILA Forecast Discussion Number 4
2013-06-30 22:42:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SUN JUN 30 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 302042 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 200 PM PDT SUN JUN 30 2013 ALTHOUGH SITUATED IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT SEEMS CONDUCIVE TO INTENSIFICATION...DALILA HAS NOT STRENGTHENED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. IN FACT...THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED SINCE EARLIER TODAY...AND THE DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT IMPRESSIVE. A RECENT ASCAT OVERPASS INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE IS OF MARGINAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...SO THE CURRENT WIND SPEED ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 35 KT. SINCE CONDITIONS SHOULD FAVOR STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW WINDS APPROACHING HURRICANE FORCE IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL AND REGIONAL HURRICANE MODEL GUIDANCE...AND IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST FSU SUPERENSEMBLE PREDICTION. EVEN WITH HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGES...THE CENTER HAS BEEN VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY. THANKS TO THE TIMELY ASCAT OVERPASS...A GOOD CENTER FIX WAS OBTAINED...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NEAR 330/8. A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. SHOULD CAUSE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD...WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...AND EVENTUALLY WESTWARD DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE LATEST OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND SLOWER IN THE LATTER PART. THIS IS SIMILAR TO BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE LATEST GFS SOLUTION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 16.2N 103.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 17.0N 104.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 18.0N 105.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 18.8N 106.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 19.0N 107.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 19.0N 108.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 04/1800Z 19.0N 110.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 05/1800Z 19.0N 112.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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