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Tropical Storm DALILA Forecast Discussion Number 6
2013-07-01 10:34:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT MON JUL 01 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 010834 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 200 AM PDT MON JUL 01 2013 THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW FEW HOURS AS INDICATED BY IR IMAGERY. THE OUTFLOW IS LIMITED TO THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND THERE ARE NO WELL DEFINED BANDING FEATURES. A BLEND OF T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB SUPPORTS KEEPING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 40 KNOTS. DALILA STILL HAS AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS BEFORE A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS. NEITHER SHIPS NOR LGEM MODELS ARE VERY ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT DALILA...AND IN FACT...THE LATEST HWRF ONLY INCREASES THE WIND SLIGHTLY. BASED ON CONTINUITY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR DALILA TO REACH HURRICANE STATUS...BUT THIS IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY TO OCCUR. DALILA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL SOON FORCE DALILA TO TAKE A MORE WESTERLY TRACK WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE GUIDANCE DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE GUIDANCE BECOMES HIGHLY DIVERGENT SINCE SOME MODELS DEVELOP A LARGE DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST OF DALILA...AND SUGGEST THAT DALILA WILL ROTATE AROUND THE NEW DISTURBANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES...BEYOND 3 DAYS...THAT DALILA INSTEAD WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY WESTWARD SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. IF THE TREND TOWARD THE WEST CONTINUES AND DALILA DOES NOT INTENSIFY MUCH MORE...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MEXICO WILL LIKELY NO LONGER BE REQUIRED. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 17.2N 105.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 18.0N 106.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 18.5N 106.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 18.8N 107.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 18.9N 108.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 04/0600Z 19.0N 109.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 05/0600Z 19.0N 111.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 06/0600Z 19.0N 114.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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