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Tropical Storm DARBY Forecast Discussion Number 5
2016-07-12 22:35:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT TUE JUL 12 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 122035 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052016 300 PM MDT TUE JUL 12 2016 Although there is still some northeasterly shear present, the low-level center of Darby has been migrating closer to the deep convection during the day. Recent ASCAT data indicate that maximum winds are now near 45 kt, and this is supported by T3.0 Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. The ocean near Darby is very warm, with SSTs on the order of 29-30 degrees Celsius, but vertical shear is expected to be 10-15 kt for another 24 hours or so. Therefore, steady strengthening is anticipated, with Darby possibly becoming a hurricane on Wednesday. The cyclone will likely reach its maximum intensity around day 3 before it reaches cooler waters and begins to weaken. Because Darby is starting out about 10 kt stronger than previously estimated, the NHC intensity forecast has been bumped up during the entire forecast period, and it is very close to the SHIPS and LGEM guidance. Darby has been moving just south of due west, or 265/10 kt. The subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone is expected to strengthen during the next 2-3 days, which will force Darby on a westward course during that time. The GFS continues to erode the western extent of the ridge more than the ECMWF and UKMET models on days 4 and 5, allowing Darby to make a stronger northwestward turn at the end of the forecast period. The NHC track forecast favors the ridge remaining strong and only shows a slight west- northwestward motion on days 4 and 5. This forecast is a little south of the TVCE model consensus and not too different from the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 15.7N 109.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 15.6N 111.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 15.5N 113.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 14/0600Z 15.4N 115.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 14/1800Z 15.6N 118.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 15/1800Z 16.2N 122.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 16/1800Z 17.0N 126.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 17/1800Z 18.0N 130.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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