je.st
news
Tropical Storm DARBY Forecast Discussion Number 7
2016-07-13 10:57:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT WED JUL 13 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 130857 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052016 300 AM MDT WED JUL 13 2016 Darby continues to strengthen. The satellite appearance has changed from a shear pattern to a central dense overcast, with a larger and deeper area of convection than 6 hours ago. In addition, a WindSat 37 GHz microwave pass at 0104 UTC showed the development of a low-level ring feature. The initial wind speed is raised to 60 kt, a bit above the satellite classifications in deference to the improved inner-core structure. Somewhat surprisingly, Darby has been rapidly intensifying during the past 24 hours, with a 30-kt wind increase during that time. Given the recently observed microwave ring feature and a generally conducive environment, it makes sense to be on the high side of the guidance in the near-term. After 24 hours, SSTs should drop to around 27C, but the shear is expected to stay low. Thus, the forecast intensities are leveled off from days 1-3 in agreement with much of the guidance. A slow decrease in wind speed is predicted at long range due to gradually falling SSTs. The NHC intensity forecast is most similar to a consensus of the HWRF, SHIPS and LGEM models. The storm is moving generally westward at about 10 kt. This general motion is expected for the next several days while Darby remains on the southern side of a strong ridge over the eastern Pacific. The cyclone could turn toward the west-northwest by the end of the period with a weaker ridge possible over the western portion of the basin. Only small changes were made to the previous forecast, and the latest NHC prediction is on the southern side of the well-clustered guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 15.3N 111.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 15.3N 113.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 14/0600Z 15.5N 115.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 14/1800Z 15.7N 117.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 15/0600Z 16.0N 120.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 16/0600Z 16.7N 124.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 17/0600Z 17.5N 128.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 18/0600Z 18.5N 132.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Latest from this category |
All news |
||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||