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Tropical Storm DARBY Forecast Discussion Number 8
2016-07-13 16:32:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT WED JUL 13 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 131432 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052016 900 AM MDT WED JUL 13 2016 About 10-15 kt of northeasterly shear continues to affect Darby, keeping it just below hurricane strength. Microwave data from a few hours ago revealed that the cyclone has a closed mid-level ring, which is offset a bit from the low-level center. In addition, the bulk of the deep convection is displaced to the south of the center. Given the current structure, and that Dvorak estimates range from 55 kt to 65 kt, the initial intensity is held at 60 kt for now. Ocean temperatures near Darby are between 28 and 29 degrees Celsius, and based on the forecast track, it appears that the cyclone will skirt along the northern edge of the cold wake left behind by previous hurricanes. The SSTs will be sufficiently warm to support intensification for the next three days or so, and vertical shear is still expected to decrease later today. Therefore, strengthening is anticipated, with the NHC official forecast close to the high end of the intensity guidance for the entire forecast period. Darby has been moving south of due west, or 265/9 kt, due to a strengthening subtropical ridge extending west of northern Mexico. The ridge is forecast to remain firmly in place through the next 5 days, keeping Darby on a generally westward path. The GFS continues to show a weaker ridge compared to the other global models at the end of the forecast period, but the spread in the guidance envelope is actually fairly low. There is high confidence in the NHC track forecast, which remains near the southern extent of the model suite and close to a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 15.2N 112.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 15.3N 114.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 15.6N 116.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 15.9N 119.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 15/1200Z 16.2N 121.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 16/1200Z 16.8N 125.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 17/1200Z 17.5N 129.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 18/1200Z 18.5N 133.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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