je.st
news
Tropical Storm DOLORES Forecast Discussion Number 25
2015-07-17 16:35:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT FRI JUL 17 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 171435 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 800 AM PDT FRI JUL 17 2015 The center of Dolores is now over water colder than 26C, and deep convection continues to gradually wane. Dvorak CI numbers ranged from 55-77 kt at 1200 UTC, and the advisory intensity is set at 60 kt, which is in agreement with the most recent UW-CIMSS ADT estimate. Steady weakening is expected to continue due to even colder water and an increase in vertical shear in about 48 hours, and Dolores is likely to become a remnant low in a few days. Dissipation is now forecast by day 5 based on the latest global model guidance. The initial motion is 295/8 kt. A mid-level subtropical ridge extending from northern Mexico westward over the Pacific Ocean should continue steering Dolores west-northwestward through tonight. Starting on Saturday, the cyclone will accelerate northwestward and north-northwestward around the western periphery of the ridge. By day 4, the remnant low will likely become nearly stationary well southwest of southern California due to weak low-level steering flow. The NHC track forecast is close to the model consensus and is not much different from the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 21.4N 115.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 21.9N 116.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 18/1200Z 22.9N 117.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 19/0000Z 24.7N 119.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 19/1200Z 26.8N 120.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 20/1200Z 30.7N 122.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 21/1200Z 31.0N 122.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Latest from this category |
All news |
||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||