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Tropical Storm DOLORES Forecast Discussion Number 26
2015-07-17 22:33:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT FRI JUL 17 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 172033 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 200 PM PDT FRI JUL 17 2015 Dolores is producing a patch of deep convection to the west and northwest of its low-level center. The maximum winds continue to decrease, and the advisory intensity is set at 50 kt based on a blend of the decreasing Dvorak CI numbers. A 1656 UTC ASCAT-B pass showed a swath of 40-45 kt winds northwest of the center, and given the instrument's resolution, it is possible that a small area of 50-kt winds could still be occurring within the deep convection. Colder water and increasing shear in the next 24-48 hours are expected to lead to further steady weakening, and Dolores is forecast to become a tropical depression by 36 hours and a remnant low by day 3. The official intensity forecast is near the intensity consensus. However, the recent rate of weakening has been faster than expected, and Dolores could become a remnant low sooner than shown below. Dolores appears to have jogged westward today, and the longer-term motion is 285/9 kt. The cyclone will be approaching the western periphery of the subtropical ridge during the next day or so, which will cause it to turn northwestward and then north-northwestward by 48 hours. Once Dolores becomes a remnant low, weak low-level steering should cause it to become nearly stationary on day 4 well southwest of the southern California coast. The updated NHC track forecast has been shifted slightly eastward, but still lies west of the TVCN multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 21.3N 116.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 21.9N 117.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 23.3N 118.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 25.2N 119.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 19/1800Z 27.5N 120.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 20/1800Z 30.6N 121.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 21/1800Z 31.0N 121.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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