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Tropical Storm DOUGLAS Forecast Discussion Number 11
2014-07-01 10:43:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT TUE JUL 01 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 010843 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 200 AM PDT TUE JUL 01 2014 The cloud pattern associated with Douglas has not changed much over the past few hours, with some broken convective bands seen southeast and west of the center. A blend of the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB and the latest UW-CIMSS ADT yields an initial intensity of 40 kt. While the shear is expected to remain low, Douglas will be moving over cool sea surface temperatures and into a more stable thermodynamic environment during the next few days. This should result in a gradual spin down of the large circulation, and Douglas is expected to weaken to a remnant low by day 4. The initial motion estimate is 315/06. As the ridge north of Douglas weakens later today, the cyclone should slow down and drift west-northwestward and westward for the next 2-3 days. After that time, the shallow cyclone will be steered more steadily westward by the trade wind flow. The new NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one through the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 18.8N 115.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 19.1N 115.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 19.4N 116.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 19.6N 116.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 19.7N 117.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 04/0600Z 20.0N 118.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 05/0600Z 20.5N 120.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/0600Z 21.0N 123.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brennan
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